Hurricane data is used both to forecast and to do research on hurricane behavior – why and how hurricanes develop, what controls their track and intensity. "To predict hurricanes we need to understand physical processes, then convert that knowledge into mathematical equations that represent physical processes," says Dr. Isaac Ginis. "This is called numerical modeling."

"My primary goal is to improve the computer models that are used for hurricane predictions in real time."

Isaac is one of the first scientists to develop a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, which simultaneously predicts both what a hurricane will do and what will happen in the ocean, and how the two will affect each other. Originally used as a research tool, Isaac began to use the coupled model to simulate real hurricanes, using numerical simulations to explain the physical processes involved.

A collaborative effort between Isaac's lab at the University of Rhode Island and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab in Princeton, New Jersey, the coupled model became operational in 2001 as the first coupled atmosphere/ocean weather forecast system implemented at the US National Weather Service, and has continued to run since then.

Developing computer models is the work of a mathematician – which is what Isaac was trained to be, with an undergraduate degree in applied mathematics. As a young mathematician interested in applying his skill to real world problems, he discovered that he could apply numerical modeling to the study of typhoons in the Pacific Ocean – which became the focus of his PhD.

Hurricane Modeling Movable Nested Grid Ocean Model For more information on how hurricane forecasting models work, visit the Hurricanes: Science and Society website. Modeling Hurricane Katrina [video]

Isaac's hurricane models are also used by other scientists to look at the impacts of climate change on hurricanes. However, in order to make future predictions researchers will need much more powerful computers; using present day technology produces a spatial resolution that is too coarse. Thus Isaac is a cheerful supporter of the computer chip and gaming industries, as they provide the drivers for better and more powerful chips. "A laptop has one or two chips," says Isaac. "To run very high-resolution models we need hundreds or thousands of processors."

Weather forecasting models predict weather on a global scale, whereas hurricanes are regional events. Isaac is working on developing a regional computer model with much higher resolution in the hurricane core region. It has a "movable mesh system" that moves with the storm, continually resolving the three-dimensional structure of the hurricane. "Our goal is to cover the atmosphere and ocean with the finest possible resolution or grid," says Isaac. "This is revolutionary science, to be able to simulate an extreme weather event around the world using high resolution weather models."